As Obama's approval rating continues to sink, things are looking better and better for whoever gets the Republican nomination in 2012.
In some head-to-head polls, some Republicans beat Obama, while others are within the margin of error, statistically tied with the president.
Things are looking good for Obama being a one-termer, right?
Well, not so fast.
Obama has an Ace in the Hole. And it just might be you.
You see, Obama and the Democrats are counting on you sitting this election out. Why would you do that? Because you aren't happy with the eventual GOP candidate.
Now, sure, it's about a year until the GOP convention. But the process to pick the candidate is already underway. In fact, Tim Pawlenty has already dropped out of the race.
The leading candidates, if you believe the polls, are Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, and Ron Paul. And, then there's Jon Huntsman, Newt Gingrich, Thaddeus McCotter, Rick Santorum, Herman Cain, Buddy Roemer, and Gary Johnson.
Then there's about Fred Karger, Andy Martin, Tom Miller and Vern Weunsche.
Oh, and don't forget The Rent Is Too Damn High Guy, Jimmy McMillan.
And still maybe Sarah Palin and John Bolton.
Some of the candidates don't draw much attention. But some that do draw a lot of passion. Several of the Gary Johnson or Ron Paul (RONPAUL!!1!!!11!!!) supporters will not vote for anyone else NOMATTERWHAT!!!1!!
And others say there's no way they'd vote for someone like Newt Gingrich or Jon Huntsman. Or Sarah Palin.
Well, unless the Republicans nominate a committee to run in 2012, only one of these will be the nominee. And there will be some very unhappy Republicans and some very unhappy conservatives. And some unhappy libertarians. And some unhappy liberaltarians.
And that's Obama's Ace In The Hole: Republican-leaning voters feeling they have a bad hand.
Look at it like a poker game. Say, five-card stud. Sure, nobody plays that anymore, but it's one of the simplest to use as an analogy, so there you go.
After the cards are dealt, Obama is holding this hand:
Ace of Clubs
Jack of Clubs
Three of Hearts
Two of Diamonds
You have this hand:
Seven of Diamonds
Eight of Diamonds
Nine of Diamonds
Ten of Diamonds
And your hole card: 10 of Spades
You've got a pair of tens. Not a great hand, but potentially a winning hand. If Obama has an Ace in the hole -- or a Jack in the hole -- he wins. Anything else, and you win.
What Obama is counting on is you being unhappy with the GOP candidate and not showing up at the polls. That's his Ace in the Hole. Or Jack in the Hole.
Now, a lot of you are going to bitch, moan, and complain about whoever gets the nomination. Like I have several times in my life. But, I went out and voted for the guy, because the alternative was worse. And, each time, history has proven me right. That is, since I've been voting (1976) the Republican who won was better than the Democrat who lost. And the Republican who lost would have been better than the Democrat who won.
Don't be Obama's Ace in the Hole. Or Jack in the Hole.
Prevent that situation by working like the Dickens for your candidate. Then, whoever wins, work like the Dickens for that candidate, too.
Don't let a bunch of Ace-Holes ... or Jack-Holes ... mess up the next election, like they did in 2008.
Don't be an Ace-Hole.