Thursday, August 28, 2008

Not so fast, Sally!

I got to the ball park tonight, awaiting the game between the Columbus Catfish and the Savannah Sand Gnats (Mets). I fired up the MacBook ... and got a shock.

The South Atlantic League says the Augusta GreenJackets (Giants) won the second half.

Now, I'm not saying that Augusta won't win the second half. I'm just saying they haven't yet won the second half.

Here's why.

Augusta is 43-21 (.672). The Catfish are 36-25 (.590). They're 5-1/2 games back ... with 5 games left.

So, why do I think they're still in it?

A couple of reasons, actually.

Augusta has 5 games left, true. Only, they might actually have 6 games left. More about that in a moment.

The Catfish have 5 games left. Except they might have 6 games left. Or 7 games left.

So, let's say Augusta loses all 5 games. They'd be 43-26 (.623).

And, let's say the Catfish win all 5 games. They'd be 41-25 (.621).

That still not good enough.


There's a suspended game from August 1st, between ... get this ... Columbus and Augusta. And the Catfish lead that game, 6-5, in the 3rd inning. And, if the Catfish are close enough to cause the game to be completed, and if they win, they'd be 42-25 (.627) and Augusta would be 43-27 (.614).

And that would mean the Catfish win the second half.

Now, will that happen?

Odds are, it won't. And I realize that.

But, to go ahead and put on their Website that Augusta has won?

You've jumped the gun, Sally.

Maybe not by much. But baseball is a game of inches ... and numbers.

And, as long as there's a chance...

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